All the work of the IG was focused after the turn south "to the pole"was and still is on a plane flying as far as possible with minimal maneuvering and altitudes favorable to fuel consumption. I call that the ghost flight model performed by a sick individual or by the autopilot alone.
I cation to use the same model for a flight to the nor…
All the work of the IG was focused after the turn south "to the pole"was and still is on a plane flying as far as possible with minimal maneuvering and altitudes favorable to fuel consumption. I call that the ghost flight model performed by a sick individual or by the autopilot alone.
I cation to use the same model for a flight to the north, f.e. Russia, as a baseline for a forced highjacking model, as different motives, tactical necessities and possible threads would play a much bigger influence on the possible or even necessary flight parameters and subsequent routing.
Maneuvering, lower altitudes, deception and thread avoidance and the likes would shrink the unrefueled max range and bent the possible routes to the east into China.
In the first days of the disappearance of MH 370 prior the I-Sat Data surfaced I went so far to consider a quick stop to load/ unload , to refuel or to change the crew. My favorite was and still is Coco island airport on Great Coco Island, which was and still is in Chinese military possession . It is now much bigger than it was at that time, but a willing and capable crew could have got a 777 on and off again on the then shorter runway.
Not saying though that the topic routing to Baikonur or some other place in Russia is off, but in my humble opinion the routing would not look like a mirror image of the southern routing.
Hey RetiredF4 nice to hear from you. I don't think I've heard anyone propose Great Coco Island before--it's an interesting idea, I guess the idea is that you could kill some time before taking off again and hitting the later ping arcs. I imagine you'd wind up with an end point somewhere in Western China?
The basic idea at that time was not to look for a place somewhere, but to think through a rouge plan from the point of the final turn (last known postion) to south or north. Any rouge plan has to consider multiple factors, including contingency options if the plan would go wrong, if the plane would be detected, if it would be intercepted, if it would crash. It would include deception and diversion, and it would aim to split the endeavor in at least four main tasks:
Diversion:
Take over the plane and divert from the planned route without raising suspicion right away, done by starting the diversion at the handover and going dark, flying back while everybody would look for the plane along the planned route.
Deception:
If detected after the turnaround, every sound human from ATC or military would have assumed that the crew decided to fly back to land in Kuala Lumpur. When it turned at Penang right to northwest instead southeast it could be for an positioning maneuver to go for Penang airport. At that time the next phase began,
Leaving radar coverage:
Tracking outbound to the last known radar position MH370 opened a cascade of possible tracks in a region with limited or no radar coverage. Even if an earlier ground based radar contact would had been established, it would have not been possible to know where to look for the aircraft after it left the radar envelope. The danger though was, when the military would scramble jets early enough to search for MH370 to the north east, the further routing could have been detected. Contingency plan would be to plan an early landing, which would hide the aircraft from airborne radars and opened several chances, to eveluate the situation, to unload whatever it was, to refuel, to save the cabin and cockpit, to let the aircraft disappear or continue its flight right away or when it was safe at a later time.
What the IG followed is imho a complete illogical though not impossible routing. The first part of the events until the last military radar contact is in gross contrast to the following assumed routing south. And more so, when you assume that the aim was to disappear to the south and sink the plane, then the known prior actions were untypical well planned including the turn and track to the northeast, but followed by a straight routing with the captain enjoying the sing "Ride of the Valkyries" makes no sense at all.
As to the question where it could have headed in China and for what reason, I have no idea. After the I-Sat data surfaced any discussion about a north routing was hammered down I refrained from mentioning it anymore.
Very interesting. Reading your recollections of that time before the BFO data was understood brings me back to the though processes that were unfolding at the time. And looking back, it's striking how how, as you say, the first part of the event -- the precise timing, the aggression, the acceleration -- contrasts with the second part, in which the suicide-pilot just sits and waits six hours for the fuel to run out. Why all the aggression, just to go do in obscurity somewhere? And if, as some have speculated, Zaharie wanted to commit the 'perfect crime' by making the plane vanish undetectably and never be found, why didn't he continue flying off in the direction where there was no radar coverage, namely to the east? This, I think, is a problem that lies at the core of the southern scenario.
All the work of the IG was focused after the turn south "to the pole"was and still is on a plane flying as far as possible with minimal maneuvering and altitudes favorable to fuel consumption. I call that the ghost flight model performed by a sick individual or by the autopilot alone.
I cation to use the same model for a flight to the north, f.e. Russia, as a baseline for a forced highjacking model, as different motives, tactical necessities and possible threads would play a much bigger influence on the possible or even necessary flight parameters and subsequent routing.
Maneuvering, lower altitudes, deception and thread avoidance and the likes would shrink the unrefueled max range and bent the possible routes to the east into China.
In the first days of the disappearance of MH 370 prior the I-Sat Data surfaced I went so far to consider a quick stop to load/ unload , to refuel or to change the crew. My favorite was and still is Coco island airport on Great Coco Island, which was and still is in Chinese military possession . It is now much bigger than it was at that time, but a willing and capable crew could have got a 777 on and off again on the then shorter runway.
Not saying though that the topic routing to Baikonur or some other place in Russia is off, but in my humble opinion the routing would not look like a mirror image of the southern routing.
Hey RetiredF4 nice to hear from you. I don't think I've heard anyone propose Great Coco Island before--it's an interesting idea, I guess the idea is that you could kill some time before taking off again and hitting the later ping arcs. I imagine you'd wind up with an end point somewhere in Western China?
The basic idea at that time was not to look for a place somewhere, but to think through a rouge plan from the point of the final turn (last known postion) to south or north. Any rouge plan has to consider multiple factors, including contingency options if the plan would go wrong, if the plane would be detected, if it would be intercepted, if it would crash. It would include deception and diversion, and it would aim to split the endeavor in at least four main tasks:
Diversion:
Take over the plane and divert from the planned route without raising suspicion right away, done by starting the diversion at the handover and going dark, flying back while everybody would look for the plane along the planned route.
Deception:
If detected after the turnaround, every sound human from ATC or military would have assumed that the crew decided to fly back to land in Kuala Lumpur. When it turned at Penang right to northwest instead southeast it could be for an positioning maneuver to go for Penang airport. At that time the next phase began,
Leaving radar coverage:
Tracking outbound to the last known radar position MH370 opened a cascade of possible tracks in a region with limited or no radar coverage. Even if an earlier ground based radar contact would had been established, it would have not been possible to know where to look for the aircraft after it left the radar envelope. The danger though was, when the military would scramble jets early enough to search for MH370 to the north east, the further routing could have been detected. Contingency plan would be to plan an early landing, which would hide the aircraft from airborne radars and opened several chances, to eveluate the situation, to unload whatever it was, to refuel, to save the cabin and cockpit, to let the aircraft disappear or continue its flight right away or when it was safe at a later time.
What the IG followed is imho a complete illogical though not impossible routing. The first part of the events until the last military radar contact is in gross contrast to the following assumed routing south. And more so, when you assume that the aim was to disappear to the south and sink the plane, then the known prior actions were untypical well planned including the turn and track to the northeast, but followed by a straight routing with the captain enjoying the sing "Ride of the Valkyries" makes no sense at all.
As to the question where it could have headed in China and for what reason, I have no idea. After the I-Sat data surfaced any discussion about a north routing was hammered down I refrained from mentioning it anymore.
Very interesting. Reading your recollections of that time before the BFO data was understood brings me back to the though processes that were unfolding at the time. And looking back, it's striking how how, as you say, the first part of the event -- the precise timing, the aggression, the acceleration -- contrasts with the second part, in which the suicide-pilot just sits and waits six hours for the fuel to run out. Why all the aggression, just to go do in obscurity somewhere? And if, as some have speculated, Zaharie wanted to commit the 'perfect crime' by making the plane vanish undetectably and never be found, why didn't he continue flying off in the direction where there was no radar coverage, namely to the east? This, I think, is a problem that lies at the core of the southern scenario.