And yet again, every answer brings more questions.
флаундер аэропорт or Камбала - Flounder Airport aka Kambala Air Base - KZ-0087.
There are images with cloud cover taken on the 7th March 2014. Runway looks clear of snow (using a dataset that passes through cloud), which only confirms someone was around.
I'm not too sure about the runways at Balkhash, Voyyennye Aerodrom (Zhetygen) and Taldykorgan as the images look fuzzy - even if it shows the runway may have been cleared a little you can't see any sort of details regarding buildings and aircraft.
I ignored Usharal as it seems too far to the East. However, I did notice the DVOR/DME radio beacon North West of Zharkent (ID:JRK, 44°13'44"N 79°57'19"E) that sits close to the border with China. Would any of these types of installations (majority appear to run 24hrs) have "interrogated" a plane with no transponder? Would the Kazakh Air Force check it out or shoot it down? What is the relationship between Kazakhstan and China? What went on at Kant and Ganci Air Bases? Do my children need feeding AGAIN?!
Great research Jeff. My continuing mantra is motive. If you believe Zaharie didn’t commit suicide and this was a planned hijacking, who had the motive and the means? The only answer is Russia. I believe some of the oligarchs were planning on holding some of Malaysian passengers hostage in exchange for the billions they lost through 1MDB. The hijackers would obviously release passengers from other countries. When they landed they realized they had miscalculated on the oxygen deprivation and all the passengers were dead. When you look at the three persons of interest, they were not going to sit idly by while the plane flew into oblivion. Finding those three people is the solution. I’m sure you’ll be addressing this.
Thanks Trip! This is an interesting idea. A lot of listeners have been asking us to discuss motive, so we're going to be doing just that in the episode after next.
All the work of the IG was focused after the turn south "to the pole"was and still is on a plane flying as far as possible with minimal maneuvering and altitudes favorable to fuel consumption. I call that the ghost flight model performed by a sick individual or by the autopilot alone.
I cation to use the same model for a flight to the north, f.e. Russia, as a baseline for a forced highjacking model, as different motives, tactical necessities and possible threads would play a much bigger influence on the possible or even necessary flight parameters and subsequent routing.
Maneuvering, lower altitudes, deception and thread avoidance and the likes would shrink the unrefueled max range and bent the possible routes to the east into China.
In the first days of the disappearance of MH 370 prior the I-Sat Data surfaced I went so far to consider a quick stop to load/ unload , to refuel or to change the crew. My favorite was and still is Coco island airport on Great Coco Island, which was and still is in Chinese military possession . It is now much bigger than it was at that time, but a willing and capable crew could have got a 777 on and off again on the then shorter runway.
Not saying though that the topic routing to Baikonur or some other place in Russia is off, but in my humble opinion the routing would not look like a mirror image of the southern routing.
Hey RetiredF4 nice to hear from you. I don't think I've heard anyone propose Great Coco Island before--it's an interesting idea, I guess the idea is that you could kill some time before taking off again and hitting the later ping arcs. I imagine you'd wind up with an end point somewhere in Western China?
The basic idea at that time was not to look for a place somewhere, but to think through a rouge plan from the point of the final turn (last known postion) to south or north. Any rouge plan has to consider multiple factors, including contingency options if the plan would go wrong, if the plane would be detected, if it would be intercepted, if it would crash. It would include deception and diversion, and it would aim to split the endeavor in at least four main tasks:
Diversion:
Take over the plane and divert from the planned route without raising suspicion right away, done by starting the diversion at the handover and going dark, flying back while everybody would look for the plane along the planned route.
Deception:
If detected after the turnaround, every sound human from ATC or military would have assumed that the crew decided to fly back to land in Kuala Lumpur. When it turned at Penang right to northwest instead southeast it could be for an positioning maneuver to go for Penang airport. At that time the next phase began,
Leaving radar coverage:
Tracking outbound to the last known radar position MH370 opened a cascade of possible tracks in a region with limited or no radar coverage. Even if an earlier ground based radar contact would had been established, it would have not been possible to know where to look for the aircraft after it left the radar envelope. The danger though was, when the military would scramble jets early enough to search for MH370 to the north east, the further routing could have been detected. Contingency plan would be to plan an early landing, which would hide the aircraft from airborne radars and opened several chances, to eveluate the situation, to unload whatever it was, to refuel, to save the cabin and cockpit, to let the aircraft disappear or continue its flight right away or when it was safe at a later time.
What the IG followed is imho a complete illogical though not impossible routing. The first part of the events until the last military radar contact is in gross contrast to the following assumed routing south. And more so, when you assume that the aim was to disappear to the south and sink the plane, then the known prior actions were untypical well planned including the turn and track to the northeast, but followed by a straight routing with the captain enjoying the sing "Ride of the Valkyries" makes no sense at all.
As to the question where it could have headed in China and for what reason, I have no idea. After the I-Sat data surfaced any discussion about a north routing was hammered down I refrained from mentioning it anymore.
Very interesting. Reading your recollections of that time before the BFO data was understood brings me back to the though processes that were unfolding at the time. And looking back, it's striking how how, as you say, the first part of the event -- the precise timing, the aggression, the acceleration -- contrasts with the second part, in which the suicide-pilot just sits and waits six hours for the fuel to run out. Why all the aggression, just to go do in obscurity somewhere? And if, as some have speculated, Zaharie wanted to commit the 'perfect crime' by making the plane vanish undetectably and never be found, why didn't he continue flying off in the direction where there was no radar coverage, namely to the east? This, I think, is a problem that lies at the core of the southern scenario.
Ok, thank you. I will look at the link with Olga Lautman. Things are scarry these days with weaponry being tested on God knows what. I don't even read most emails because of the not knowing if it's just a bunch of B.S. or truth, and they are all likely sent tonthe masses to spread their endless fear.
The MH17...eyes gone wide!
My father is a retired USAF pilot. He is 95, and has his thoughts. My best friend's father was a USAF test pilot and recently passed away in San Antonio. We both are afraid of flying these days, but feel better when the pilot is a former military pilot. I say now what does it matter against missles and other high tech weaponry; along with hikackers who will die for some insane cause.
Are there low level satellites with the capability of targeting and destroying moving targets? Drones are capable of course and I don't think they can be eliminated as a cause to what happened to these flights. Or were they eliminated? Sorry, but I have not been in the know, but as you
said...It has me and I want to keep going with it.
I have thought allot about the things you have
said about MH370 and lean towards North, but also wonder about a hijacking to Africa gone
bad. But when MH17 happened, I wondered if it was related, and if so was it used to place focus on Russia for MH370 or were both Russia's doing. If both were Russia, why the secrecy of the culprit with MH370? Was it all cargo related?
Do you think we will ever know the real truth in our lifetime?
First, congratulations on your excellent podcast. You always provide a balanced view and in some respects a scientific education! From day one, I was always sceptical of the accepted narrative that it was pilot suicide and I wondered if the plane could have gone North. You provide a credible theory of how this could happen.
I particularly have an interest in MH370 because I grew up in Malaysia, although I have been living in the UK for the last 40 years, after spending 3.5 years at UT Austin. Until I was forced to stop work due to illness last year, I worked for over 25 years as a forensic accountant, quantifying damages as an expert witness in civil cases.
About 15 years ago I began working with data analysts who were able to use powerful tools to make sense of large quantities of data. This helped me in many of my cases. I became familiar with the term "big data" which was always determinative of the problem and never questioned.
The acceptance that the plane went South is a good example of the big data problem - everyone believes it because it must be true. But it will never be proven until someone finds the plane.
I enjoyed your episode about possible landing sites in Kazakhstan. Do you remember an article published soon after the plane went missing quoting a Russian newspaper claiming that it had landed in Afghanistan? Unlikely for sure but I just wondered if you have already
Thanks Bruno, I hadn't seen that story, but it would be entirely keeping with Russian misinformation practice for them to put out a fake story like this. We know from the BTO data that the plane couldn't have gone to Afghanistan.
Great insight about the "big data" mindset. Clever people with lots of data have a hard time accepting that the answer might not lie in their data set.
Thanks Jeff for the comments. As a forensic accountant, my instinct was always to question dearly held assumptions, especially those made by the expert on the other side of the case! Big data, through its sheer volume and clever analysis, would often convince the judge in our favour. What troubles me in this case, as you said in one of your podcasts, is that the fate of so many is decided purely by math.
I sent you the article just in case you haven't seen it before. I agree, the plane could not have gone to Afghanistan. It is possibly deliberate misinformation, but I wonder why they would spread this kind of news, when the intention was to make the world think that it went south - unless it was a double bluff? I wonder if it may have a grain of truth - news second or third hand may have turned Kazakhstan into Afghanistan. I leave it to you to decide whether it's worth asking one of your researchers to do a bit of digging.
In the meantime, look forward to the new search finding the plane on the sea bed (not)!
Did you send it to jeff [at] jeffwise.net? I looked in my spam folder but it wasn't there. Maybe try again?
Important to understand that with Russian and right-wing disinformation campaigns, the goal is less to establish an alternate narrative than to flood the zone with all sorts of narratives, so that the public is unable to sort out fantasy from reality, or to put it another way, low-quality scenarios from high-quality ones. The media very much fell for this in the wake of MH370, for a decade almost every documentary made on the topic took the position that there was an innumerable quantity of theories in contention, when I started working with Netflix I took great pains to emphasize that this was not right, there were only two. It didn't solve the case but it at least I think shifted the conversation away from the idea that all theories are equally plausible.
Let's pretend this idea of flying north were true. What is the implication? Are you saying all the people on board MH370 were mass murdered and buried along the route or at a northern destination after refueling? Yes maybe the oxygen thing was not intentional, but I personally would never believe. So they wanted the cargo, or wanted to kill the majority of people on the flight which were Chinese? If some truth, my guess is the U.S. knows and there will be payback at some point if it hasn't already happened. Russia flys planes too.
The implication is that for the last 11 years we have been under attack from people who are much smarter and more ruthless than we are -- and as a result we have been entirely helpless, unable to fight a war that we were unable to percieve. And as a result we have lost an our enemy is in the process of dismantling and digesting us.
Thank you for replying. Are you still referring to the Malaysian Flight? I think on some level you are correct. But Smarter and more ruthless, I dunno. It would be awful to think the plane landed, dumped people, refueled, and took off. Why would any country want to do this and risk getting caught in something so ruthless? Anyone behind such a plan should be hunted down like a dog like you know who from 9-11.
I was referring to MH370 and all the hybrid war aggressions that took place after it, from MH17 to the election of Donald Trump to recent GPS jamming and hacking, the DHL incendiary device sabotage and everything else. "Why would any country want to do this and risk getting caught in something so ruthless?" I address this in my episode with Olga Lautman, who's been covering this for year. See https://www.deepdivemh370.com/p/from-mh370-to-jan-6-s2ep18
Just noticed that these post videos still contain the link to the old channel (Andy has rebranded it to the Deep Dive Podcast Network). Is it possible to change all the Season One YouTube here to links for the Jeff Wise Finding MH370 Season 1 Remastered episodes, is it 31 posts? Bit of a pain but it makes sure everyone is pointed to the Finding MH370 podcast.
Where the Buran shuttle landed. Untouched for decades. Had been cleaned up in the preceding months, Destroyed and buried within a month. Nothing around for many miles since the rockets launch from there.
The only problem being that it's a bit too far for MH370 to have reached using the fuel it had on board. In a future episode of Season 2 we're going to look at some alternatives.
Hi Jeff. Here's something that will be of interest to you:
« “Russia is regularly attacking the aircraft, passengers, and sovereign territory of NATO countries,” said Dana Goward, president of the U.S.-based Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation, a GPS users lobby group. “It is a real threat,” Goward warned. “There is one instance of accidentally jamming we know of that almost resulted in a passenger aircraft impacting a mountain,” he said, referring to a case reported by NASA in 2019. »
Really? That’s exciting. Testing in the area is a great alibi for their presence there, if they’re bothered about having one.
Pass on the maths. I get confused (I could end the sentence here) with the fuel calculation; I’m sure the published MH370 fuel onboard figure differs from the maximum figure stated in the 777 ‘brochure’ on modernairliners.com .
I did a rough measurement and I think it was 2600+NM from the last radar sighting, and from what I can remember it was within the maximum range for the whole journey 🤞🏻
Thanks Jamie! We get into this question in some depth in episode 24 and 25 -- the implication is that the pieces could not have floated for 16+ months from an impact site on the 7th arc, so they must have been put in the water about a year after that.
Yes I’ve followed your floating / barnacles question all the way along the blog and the podcast. I was thinking specifically about any damage to the parts - surely a crash or explosion leaves a lot of physical signatures. Is there any story here? Twisted metal? Shears? How did the aeroplane turn into parts before it went into the water?
Oh right I see. I actually spent some time looking at the mechanical damage to the recovered parts, and talking to experts, and what I found was interesting there, too -- in short, rather than being crushed, most of the pieces had been torn apart, even a piece from the nose. In the case of TWA his kind of mechanical breakage allowed investigators to deduce exactly how the plane had come apart. But MH370 debris is more fragmentary and hard to draw conclusions from. We should do an episode on it though...
Does it have to be a straight line flight path over the Himalayas? Given the abrupt turn at the beginning was to possibly look like a turn back, avoiding alerting the military, can we not assume that this behaviour continued? Could further points be met, matching the pings/arcs, that avoided military radar?
There's that rabbit hole! Enjoy the ride, because not only is there a rabbit but I think a team of squirrels has moved into my brain. Even if you think differently, it might show you how you can get some more details into future episode, or you might just enjoy a laugh.
The ping dots on the map (fastcompany), something looks off about them. Too far to the East from the start?
I'm looking at the ATS Route Chart of India (atcguild.in) now, and if I continue on what I believe was last seen on radar, MH370 appears to head roughly towards the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and then Kolkata. I'll continue as if I'm the pilot from the last known area.
I could use P628 (Westbound) over India towards Pakistan and then onwards to the other 'stans. - My favourite as most direct.
I could use Eastbound L510 heading to the north of Bhopal, because Kuala Lumpur ACC (? ATC?) sometimes uses this during this quiet time. " Note 2: When successive AFTM westbound flights flight planned on P628 arriving GIVAL between 1500 and 1900UTC and flights flight planned on N571/N877 arriving VAMPI between 1530 and 1930UTC do not meet the required longitudinal separation requirements, some of these flights may be rerouted onto this ATS route by KL ACC to allow the allocation of more optimal flight levels) but flights should not flight plan this route (aip.caam.gov.my - ENR 3 ATS Routes, ENR 3.3 Area Navigation (RNAV) Routes)". I could then head North to Delhi at PUKES (great name given the number of issues with this area - flight paths, other things noted in the next paragraph) on the W20/Q24 then W39 to Leh, or head into Pakistan on the P628 at IBANI.
Or I could join W112 over Port Blair from P628 - IGREX, which is North of IGOGU (N571) to LAGOG (splits here: N571 and N877). I get a little confused with ADIZ and FIRs but it's busy in this area for those which could be or exceeds the limits of those radars, if they were even switched on. I need to look like a normal plane whose transponder might not be working, to also being aware of what flight path heads where and avoid other aircraft. Can I know this from data collected previously, rather than connect to a satellite and see it in real time? Heading to Kolkata on W112 takes the plane through some restricted airpspace zones near DOPID, so I still appear normal to radar if seen. Then it gets a little bit interesting with flight paths towards the Himalayas, but ultimately I guess I'm trying to get the plane away from flights so do I fly high and over the Himalayas, or can I still match the arc pings by turning left along the southern borders running along the Himalayas. R581 takes us to Simara, a cheeky hop over onto the L626 at Bharatpur to Pantnagar but flips, looks like I'm heading towards a lot of potential restricted airspace zones, VHF Omni Directional Radio Ranges (VOR) and Non-Directional Radio Beacons (NDB). If I can somehow head towards W39 to Leh I can then continue into Pakistan etc to the final ping and up to 50 minutes past that, assuming plane shut down at 59 so no next ping point.
Do you see why I don't work well with Post-It Notes?!
I spent a lot of time looking at waypoints and routes, but ultimately came to the conclusion that a) there are various ways to do it, but none of them really reduce the universe of possibilities b) the simplest and best way to do it, since you're not under ATC control, would just be to plug in the GPS coordinates of where you want to go and fly there direct.
🤔 So they would fly above cruising level to avoid other aircraft, assume radar are not seeing them… then how can the pilot enter GPS coords if everything connecting to satellites in the plane is switched off? If they had a special device, as well as breathing apparatus, that would be seen during check-in, and easily explained, or not understood and ignored?
I found an interesting runway the other day, can’t find it again now. In the middle of nowhere but a very long runway. I’ll keep looking.
They wouldn't need to fly higher than normal to avoid other aicraft, the odds of hitting someone by accident are infinitesmal. But they could gradually climb in order to fly more efficiently. A special device could be built into a laptop case or other piece of everyday electronics, and breathing gear is already stored in the cabin for use by the cabin crew, you just need to know where to find it. As for GPS, that's a different system than the sat com and wouldn't be affected by turning off the SDU.
There is the unnamed, longer runway (over 9700ft) 3 miles West of Koktas Train Station, near Priozersk and Sary Shagan. Maybe refuelling and flying on wasn't on the cards.
I think it's Koktas Southwest airport KZ-0085. Looks like a former military airbase, maybe still is, looks pretty sleepy based on Google Earth imagery. Kind of far from the 7th arc but since it's further to the east than Baikonur maybe fuel wouldn't be a problem. Good catch!
Thanks, very intriguing episode. I can’t help but think of the MH370 passengers. In all these scenarios is the assumption that they died from hypoxia? Is there any possibility you’d consider having input from one of the family representatives? Are they pursuing an independent investigation?
I wouldn't assume they died from hypoxia but it seems like a plausible scenario. I'd love to have input from a family representative, I've been meaning to reach out but haven't gotten around to it yet. As far as I know they aren't pursuing an independent investigation; I think most generally assume the plane went into the southern ocean.
My job for the next week? Okay! ☺️
And yet again, every answer brings more questions.
флаундер аэропорт or Камбала - Flounder Airport aka Kambala Air Base - KZ-0087.
There are images with cloud cover taken on the 7th March 2014. Runway looks clear of snow (using a dataset that passes through cloud), which only confirms someone was around.
I'm not too sure about the runways at Balkhash, Voyyennye Aerodrom (Zhetygen) and Taldykorgan as the images look fuzzy - even if it shows the runway may have been cleared a little you can't see any sort of details regarding buildings and aircraft.
I ignored Usharal as it seems too far to the East. However, I did notice the DVOR/DME radio beacon North West of Zharkent (ID:JRK, 44°13'44"N 79°57'19"E) that sits close to the border with China. Would any of these types of installations (majority appear to run 24hrs) have "interrogated" a plane with no transponder? Would the Kazakh Air Force check it out or shoot it down? What is the relationship between Kazakhstan and China? What went on at Kant and Ganci Air Bases? Do my children need feeding AGAIN?!
Amazing work, thanks Keelie!
Great research Jeff. My continuing mantra is motive. If you believe Zaharie didn’t commit suicide and this was a planned hijacking, who had the motive and the means? The only answer is Russia. I believe some of the oligarchs were planning on holding some of Malaysian passengers hostage in exchange for the billions they lost through 1MDB. The hijackers would obviously release passengers from other countries. When they landed they realized they had miscalculated on the oxygen deprivation and all the passengers were dead. When you look at the three persons of interest, they were not going to sit idly by while the plane flew into oblivion. Finding those three people is the solution. I’m sure you’ll be addressing this.
Thanks Trip! This is an interesting idea. A lot of listeners have been asking us to discuss motive, so we're going to be doing just that in the episode after next.
All the work of the IG was focused after the turn south "to the pole"was and still is on a plane flying as far as possible with minimal maneuvering and altitudes favorable to fuel consumption. I call that the ghost flight model performed by a sick individual or by the autopilot alone.
I cation to use the same model for a flight to the north, f.e. Russia, as a baseline for a forced highjacking model, as different motives, tactical necessities and possible threads would play a much bigger influence on the possible or even necessary flight parameters and subsequent routing.
Maneuvering, lower altitudes, deception and thread avoidance and the likes would shrink the unrefueled max range and bent the possible routes to the east into China.
In the first days of the disappearance of MH 370 prior the I-Sat Data surfaced I went so far to consider a quick stop to load/ unload , to refuel or to change the crew. My favorite was and still is Coco island airport on Great Coco Island, which was and still is in Chinese military possession . It is now much bigger than it was at that time, but a willing and capable crew could have got a 777 on and off again on the then shorter runway.
Not saying though that the topic routing to Baikonur or some other place in Russia is off, but in my humble opinion the routing would not look like a mirror image of the southern routing.
Hey RetiredF4 nice to hear from you. I don't think I've heard anyone propose Great Coco Island before--it's an interesting idea, I guess the idea is that you could kill some time before taking off again and hitting the later ping arcs. I imagine you'd wind up with an end point somewhere in Western China?
The basic idea at that time was not to look for a place somewhere, but to think through a rouge plan from the point of the final turn (last known postion) to south or north. Any rouge plan has to consider multiple factors, including contingency options if the plan would go wrong, if the plane would be detected, if it would be intercepted, if it would crash. It would include deception and diversion, and it would aim to split the endeavor in at least four main tasks:
Diversion:
Take over the plane and divert from the planned route without raising suspicion right away, done by starting the diversion at the handover and going dark, flying back while everybody would look for the plane along the planned route.
Deception:
If detected after the turnaround, every sound human from ATC or military would have assumed that the crew decided to fly back to land in Kuala Lumpur. When it turned at Penang right to northwest instead southeast it could be for an positioning maneuver to go for Penang airport. At that time the next phase began,
Leaving radar coverage:
Tracking outbound to the last known radar position MH370 opened a cascade of possible tracks in a region with limited or no radar coverage. Even if an earlier ground based radar contact would had been established, it would have not been possible to know where to look for the aircraft after it left the radar envelope. The danger though was, when the military would scramble jets early enough to search for MH370 to the north east, the further routing could have been detected. Contingency plan would be to plan an early landing, which would hide the aircraft from airborne radars and opened several chances, to eveluate the situation, to unload whatever it was, to refuel, to save the cabin and cockpit, to let the aircraft disappear or continue its flight right away or when it was safe at a later time.
What the IG followed is imho a complete illogical though not impossible routing. The first part of the events until the last military radar contact is in gross contrast to the following assumed routing south. And more so, when you assume that the aim was to disappear to the south and sink the plane, then the known prior actions were untypical well planned including the turn and track to the northeast, but followed by a straight routing with the captain enjoying the sing "Ride of the Valkyries" makes no sense at all.
As to the question where it could have headed in China and for what reason, I have no idea. After the I-Sat data surfaced any discussion about a north routing was hammered down I refrained from mentioning it anymore.
Very interesting. Reading your recollections of that time before the BFO data was understood brings me back to the though processes that were unfolding at the time. And looking back, it's striking how how, as you say, the first part of the event -- the precise timing, the aggression, the acceleration -- contrasts with the second part, in which the suicide-pilot just sits and waits six hours for the fuel to run out. Why all the aggression, just to go do in obscurity somewhere? And if, as some have speculated, Zaharie wanted to commit the 'perfect crime' by making the plane vanish undetectably and never be found, why didn't he continue flying off in the direction where there was no radar coverage, namely to the east? This, I think, is a problem that lies at the core of the southern scenario.
Ok, thank you. I will look at the link with Olga Lautman. Things are scarry these days with weaponry being tested on God knows what. I don't even read most emails because of the not knowing if it's just a bunch of B.S. or truth, and they are all likely sent tonthe masses to spread their endless fear.
The MH17...eyes gone wide!
My father is a retired USAF pilot. He is 95, and has his thoughts. My best friend's father was a USAF test pilot and recently passed away in San Antonio. We both are afraid of flying these days, but feel better when the pilot is a former military pilot. I say now what does it matter against missles and other high tech weaponry; along with hikackers who will die for some insane cause.
Are there low level satellites with the capability of targeting and destroying moving targets? Drones are capable of course and I don't think they can be eliminated as a cause to what happened to these flights. Or were they eliminated? Sorry, but I have not been in the know, but as you
said...It has me and I want to keep going with it.
I have thought allot about the things you have
said about MH370 and lean towards North, but also wonder about a hijacking to Africa gone
bad. But when MH17 happened, I wondered if it was related, and if so was it used to place focus on Russia for MH370 or were both Russia's doing. If both were Russia, why the secrecy of the culprit with MH370? Was it all cargo related?
Do you think we will ever know the real truth in our lifetime?
I think we will. I think if the authorities can rally the energy and focus to take the case seriously it won't lie outside their capabilities.
Hi Jeff,
First, congratulations on your excellent podcast. You always provide a balanced view and in some respects a scientific education! From day one, I was always sceptical of the accepted narrative that it was pilot suicide and I wondered if the plane could have gone North. You provide a credible theory of how this could happen.
I particularly have an interest in MH370 because I grew up in Malaysia, although I have been living in the UK for the last 40 years, after spending 3.5 years at UT Austin. Until I was forced to stop work due to illness last year, I worked for over 25 years as a forensic accountant, quantifying damages as an expert witness in civil cases.
About 15 years ago I began working with data analysts who were able to use powerful tools to make sense of large quantities of data. This helped me in many of my cases. I became familiar with the term "big data" which was always determinative of the problem and never questioned.
The acceptance that the plane went South is a good example of the big data problem - everyone believes it because it must be true. But it will never be proven until someone finds the plane.
I enjoyed your episode about possible landing sites in Kazakhstan. Do you remember an article published soon after the plane went missing quoting a Russian newspaper claiming that it had landed in Afghanistan? Unlikely for sure but I just wondered if you have already
investigated and dismissed it.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/mh370-hijacked-afghanistan-russian-intelligence-3407468
Keep up the good work!
Kind regards
Bruno Augustin
Thanks Bruno, I hadn't seen that story, but it would be entirely keeping with Russian misinformation practice for them to put out a fake story like this. We know from the BTO data that the plane couldn't have gone to Afghanistan.
Great insight about the "big data" mindset. Clever people with lots of data have a hard time accepting that the answer might not lie in their data set.
Thanks Jeff for the comments. As a forensic accountant, my instinct was always to question dearly held assumptions, especially those made by the expert on the other side of the case! Big data, through its sheer volume and clever analysis, would often convince the judge in our favour. What troubles me in this case, as you said in one of your podcasts, is that the fate of so many is decided purely by math.
I sent you the article just in case you haven't seen it before. I agree, the plane could not have gone to Afghanistan. It is possibly deliberate misinformation, but I wonder why they would spread this kind of news, when the intention was to make the world think that it went south - unless it was a double bluff? I wonder if it may have a grain of truth - news second or third hand may have turned Kazakhstan into Afghanistan. I leave it to you to decide whether it's worth asking one of your researchers to do a bit of digging.
In the meantime, look forward to the new search finding the plane on the sea bed (not)!
Did you send it to jeff [at] jeffwise.net? I looked in my spam folder but it wasn't there. Maybe try again?
Important to understand that with Russian and right-wing disinformation campaigns, the goal is less to establish an alternate narrative than to flood the zone with all sorts of narratives, so that the public is unable to sort out fantasy from reality, or to put it another way, low-quality scenarios from high-quality ones. The media very much fell for this in the wake of MH370, for a decade almost every documentary made on the topic took the position that there was an innumerable quantity of theories in contention, when I started working with Netflix I took great pains to emphasize that this was not right, there were only two. It didn't solve the case but it at least I think shifted the conversation away from the idea that all theories are equally plausible.
Let's pretend this idea of flying north were true. What is the implication? Are you saying all the people on board MH370 were mass murdered and buried along the route or at a northern destination after refueling? Yes maybe the oxygen thing was not intentional, but I personally would never believe. So they wanted the cargo, or wanted to kill the majority of people on the flight which were Chinese? If some truth, my guess is the U.S. knows and there will be payback at some point if it hasn't already happened. Russia flys planes too.
The implication is that for the last 11 years we have been under attack from people who are much smarter and more ruthless than we are -- and as a result we have been entirely helpless, unable to fight a war that we were unable to percieve. And as a result we have lost an our enemy is in the process of dismantling and digesting us.
Thank you for replying. Are you still referring to the Malaysian Flight? I think on some level you are correct. But Smarter and more ruthless, I dunno. It would be awful to think the plane landed, dumped people, refueled, and took off. Why would any country want to do this and risk getting caught in something so ruthless? Anyone behind such a plan should be hunted down like a dog like you know who from 9-11.
I was referring to MH370 and all the hybrid war aggressions that took place after it, from MH17 to the election of Donald Trump to recent GPS jamming and hacking, the DHL incendiary device sabotage and everything else. "Why would any country want to do this and risk getting caught in something so ruthless?" I address this in my episode with Olga Lautman, who's been covering this for year. See https://www.deepdivemh370.com/p/from-mh370-to-jan-6-s2ep18
Just noticed that these post videos still contain the link to the old channel (Andy has rebranded it to the Deep Dive Podcast Network). Is it possible to change all the Season One YouTube here to links for the Jeff Wise Finding MH370 Season 1 Remastered episodes, is it 31 posts? Bit of a pain but it makes sure everyone is pointed to the Finding MH370 podcast.
Where the Buran shuttle landed. Untouched for decades. Had been cleaned up in the preceding months, Destroyed and buried within a month. Nothing around for many miles since the rockets launch from there.
The only problem being that it's a bit too far for MH370 to have reached using the fuel it had on board. In a future episode of Season 2 we're going to look at some alternatives.
Hi Jeff. Here's something that will be of interest to you:
« “Russia is regularly attacking the aircraft, passengers, and sovereign territory of NATO countries,” said Dana Goward, president of the U.S.-based Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation, a GPS users lobby group. “It is a real threat,” Goward warned. “There is one instance of accidentally jamming we know of that almost resulted in a passenger aircraft impacting a mountain,” he said, referring to a case reported by NASA in 2019. »
https://www.politico.eu/article/airlines-flying-baltic-region-report-gps-signal-russia-gets-blame/
Russia attacking airplanes again ...
Really interesting, thanks Peter! This is a topic I think I'm going to be covering more for various outlets in the future.
Really? That’s exciting. Testing in the area is a great alibi for their presence there, if they’re bothered about having one.
Pass on the maths. I get confused (I could end the sentence here) with the fuel calculation; I’m sure the published MH370 fuel onboard figure differs from the maximum figure stated in the 777 ‘brochure’ on modernairliners.com .
I did a rough measurement and I think it was 2600+NM from the last radar sighting, and from what I can remember it was within the maximum range for the whole journey 🤞🏻
I bet you're right. Pity that there doesn't seem to be any available satellite footage of the area taken just before dawn on March 8, 2024...
Love the podcast and the commitment to the facts. What do all the recovered pieces imply about how the plane supposedly landed/crashed/fell apart?
Thanks Jamie! We get into this question in some depth in episode 24 and 25 -- the implication is that the pieces could not have floated for 16+ months from an impact site on the 7th arc, so they must have been put in the water about a year after that.
Yes I’ve followed your floating / barnacles question all the way along the blog and the podcast. I was thinking specifically about any damage to the parts - surely a crash or explosion leaves a lot of physical signatures. Is there any story here? Twisted metal? Shears? How did the aeroplane turn into parts before it went into the water?
Oh right I see. I actually spent some time looking at the mechanical damage to the recovered parts, and talking to experts, and what I found was interesting there, too -- in short, rather than being crushed, most of the pieces had been torn apart, even a piece from the nose. In the case of TWA his kind of mechanical breakage allowed investigators to deduce exactly how the plane had come apart. But MH370 debris is more fragmentary and hard to draw conclusions from. We should do an episode on it though...
Routes North
Does it have to be a straight line flight path over the Himalayas? Given the abrupt turn at the beginning was to possibly look like a turn back, avoiding alerting the military, can we not assume that this behaviour continued? Could further points be met, matching the pings/arcs, that avoided military radar?
There's that rabbit hole! Enjoy the ride, because not only is there a rabbit but I think a team of squirrels has moved into my brain. Even if you think differently, it might show you how you can get some more details into future episode, or you might just enjoy a laugh.
The ping dots on the map (fastcompany), something looks off about them. Too far to the East from the start?
I'm looking at the ATS Route Chart of India (atcguild.in) now, and if I continue on what I believe was last seen on radar, MH370 appears to head roughly towards the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and then Kolkata. I'll continue as if I'm the pilot from the last known area.
I could use P628 (Westbound) over India towards Pakistan and then onwards to the other 'stans. - My favourite as most direct.
I could use Eastbound L510 heading to the north of Bhopal, because Kuala Lumpur ACC (? ATC?) sometimes uses this during this quiet time. " Note 2: When successive AFTM westbound flights flight planned on P628 arriving GIVAL between 1500 and 1900UTC and flights flight planned on N571/N877 arriving VAMPI between 1530 and 1930UTC do not meet the required longitudinal separation requirements, some of these flights may be rerouted onto this ATS route by KL ACC to allow the allocation of more optimal flight levels) but flights should not flight plan this route (aip.caam.gov.my - ENR 3 ATS Routes, ENR 3.3 Area Navigation (RNAV) Routes)". I could then head North to Delhi at PUKES (great name given the number of issues with this area - flight paths, other things noted in the next paragraph) on the W20/Q24 then W39 to Leh, or head into Pakistan on the P628 at IBANI.
Or I could join W112 over Port Blair from P628 - IGREX, which is North of IGOGU (N571) to LAGOG (splits here: N571 and N877). I get a little confused with ADIZ and FIRs but it's busy in this area for those which could be or exceeds the limits of those radars, if they were even switched on. I need to look like a normal plane whose transponder might not be working, to also being aware of what flight path heads where and avoid other aircraft. Can I know this from data collected previously, rather than connect to a satellite and see it in real time? Heading to Kolkata on W112 takes the plane through some restricted airpspace zones near DOPID, so I still appear normal to radar if seen. Then it gets a little bit interesting with flight paths towards the Himalayas, but ultimately I guess I'm trying to get the plane away from flights so do I fly high and over the Himalayas, or can I still match the arc pings by turning left along the southern borders running along the Himalayas. R581 takes us to Simara, a cheeky hop over onto the L626 at Bharatpur to Pantnagar but flips, looks like I'm heading towards a lot of potential restricted airspace zones, VHF Omni Directional Radio Ranges (VOR) and Non-Directional Radio Beacons (NDB). If I can somehow head towards W39 to Leh I can then continue into Pakistan etc to the final ping and up to 50 minutes past that, assuming plane shut down at 59 so no next ping point.
Do you see why I don't work well with Post-It Notes?!
I've just briefly read this back and my brain is all over the place. The last paragraph was first for a while. Sorry.
I spent a lot of time looking at waypoints and routes, but ultimately came to the conclusion that a) there are various ways to do it, but none of them really reduce the universe of possibilities b) the simplest and best way to do it, since you're not under ATC control, would just be to plug in the GPS coordinates of where you want to go and fly there direct.
🤔 So they would fly above cruising level to avoid other aircraft, assume radar are not seeing them… then how can the pilot enter GPS coords if everything connecting to satellites in the plane is switched off? If they had a special device, as well as breathing apparatus, that would be seen during check-in, and easily explained, or not understood and ignored?
I found an interesting runway the other day, can’t find it again now. In the middle of nowhere but a very long runway. I’ll keep looking.
Thanks again for the mentions.
Keelie. ❤️
They wouldn't need to fly higher than normal to avoid other aicraft, the odds of hitting someone by accident are infinitesmal. But they could gradually climb in order to fly more efficiently. A special device could be built into a laptop case or other piece of everyday electronics, and breathing gear is already stored in the cabin for use by the cabin crew, you just need to know where to find it. As for GPS, that's a different system than the sat com and wouldn't be affected by turning off the SDU.
White Rabbit: Oh dear!
There is the unnamed, longer runway (over 9700ft) 3 miles West of Koktas Train Station, near Priozersk and Sary Shagan. Maybe refuelling and flying on wasn't on the cards.
I think it's Koktas Southwest airport KZ-0085. Looks like a former military airbase, maybe still is, looks pretty sleepy based on Google Earth imagery. Kind of far from the 7th arc but since it's further to the east than Baikonur maybe fuel wouldn't be a problem. Good catch!
Welcome to the rabbit hole!
Thanks, very intriguing episode. I can’t help but think of the MH370 passengers. In all these scenarios is the assumption that they died from hypoxia? Is there any possibility you’d consider having input from one of the family representatives? Are they pursuing an independent investigation?
I wouldn't assume they died from hypoxia but it seems like a plausible scenario. I'd love to have input from a family representative, I've been meaning to reach out but haven't gotten around to it yet. As far as I know they aren't pursuing an independent investigation; I think most generally assume the plane went into the southern ocean.