I guess it depends on what you mean by "probability." If you look at it from the perspective of the start of the search, and ask: "If I conduct a search that winds up missing 0.5 percent of the search zone, how likely am I to miss the wreckage?", then the probability of missing it is low. If you look it as: "The data says it must be in the is area, and the data has to be accurate," then the chances of it being in the data holiday are high.
Well yes, but we are not at the beginning of the search.
At this point we can say that if the remaining 0.5% search area (about 600 sqkm, ATSB data only) is comprised from "data holidays" which are large enough to contain the wreckage then probability is high, if they are small probability would be very low.
Are you willing to elaborate more on those areas left after ATSB search in one of the future episodes?
I think the data holidays have been searched out already, at least in the area that Victor Iannello proposed. On his blog he says that the ship seems to be headed for an area a little further south, if so it might scan the data holidays there.
I don't think I would do an episode about that (except to note that that's what was happening, if it occurs) because the explanation would be the same as the one I gave in Episode 28.
Jeff, note that if the "data holiday" is large enough to fit the debris field than the probability of finding the plane is high, not low.
Only if data holidays are smaller than the size of reasonable debris field they can be dismissed as potentia plane'sl resting place.
I guess it depends on what you mean by "probability." If you look at it from the perspective of the start of the search, and ask: "If I conduct a search that winds up missing 0.5 percent of the search zone, how likely am I to miss the wreckage?", then the probability of missing it is low. If you look it as: "The data says it must be in the is area, and the data has to be accurate," then the chances of it being in the data holiday are high.
Well yes, but we are not at the beginning of the search.
At this point we can say that if the remaining 0.5% search area (about 600 sqkm, ATSB data only) is comprised from "data holidays" which are large enough to contain the wreckage then probability is high, if they are small probability would be very low.
Are you willing to elaborate more on those areas left after ATSB search in one of the future episodes?
Sorry for the slow response -- do you mean, will I elaborate on the reason for searching the as-yet-unscanned areas further away from the 7th arc?
Actually, I was thinking more about "data holidays" and probability of finding the plane in one of those
I think the data holidays have been searched out already, at least in the area that Victor Iannello proposed. On his blog he says that the ship seems to be headed for an area a little further south, if so it might scan the data holidays there.
I don't think I would do an episode about that (except to note that that's what was happening, if it occurs) because the explanation would be the same as the one I gave in Episode 28.
OK, thanks, I will check it out