The aircraft is likely to be where the last ping occurred and the straight line where/when the next ping did not but should have occurred. The autopilot setting would have determined whether the aircraft glided a significant distance or immediately entered a catastrophic spin leading to breakup.
Malaysia airlines could shed more light as whether the aircraft was setup up with envelope protection or was flown in just altitude hold. Once the fuel was exhausted, in altitude hold, the aircraft would slow and start descending. However, the autopilot sensing the descent would try to keep aircraft level, forcing the aircraft to eventually stall and spin. (Much like the Learjet Paine Stewart was in that departed Augusta and finally spun in up in the Midwest.)
In airspeed mode the aircraft would have begun a descent that would keep the desired speed set in the autopilot. This means it would have flown a considerable distance until reaching the ocean surface. An Air Transat A300 glided over a hundred miles and made a successful landing after fuel exhaustion.
Even some small aircraft have sophisticated autopilots that are able to land a plane unassisted. Watch "Garmin Autoland". I installed in my C310 the latest from Garmin, and it won't allow me to overspeed, overbank, or even get to slow. It even has a blue button that when pushed will level the aircraft.
That search area looks most promising. I would start at last ping and work south westbound.
It's an interesting idea, but the pings didn't send GPS locations (due to the cheap subscription level that Malaysia Airlines had signed up for) so we can't just draw a straight line forward from its last location. Also, we don't know if the plane was being flown on autopilot, but if it was, it would have disconnected when electrical power was interrupted when the engines ran out of fuel. So it turns out to be a legitimately tricky puzzle to solve.
You are forgetting that when electrical power is interrupter the RAT automatically extends to power the very basic core functions. That was the major clue in the Air India crash. The Ram Air Turbine extended when fuel was cut off by copilot.
Whoever set this aircraft up knew the systems well. More than likely a pilot. All the breakers were pulled that affected communication and ACARS reporting. They were unaware of the intermittent ping the aircraft still sent out. There may not even have been a breaker on the flight deck.
It is obvious that basic autopilot functions were left on. The straight-line course after the final turn proves that. No pilot can fly that straight of a line or hold altitude that perfectly. Also fuel pumps were left on. Cabin had to be depressurized, otherwise people would be aware. Whoever did this was probably using oxygen until autopilot was setup on heading to a place where plane would never be found. It was then removed, and he simply went quietly to sleep. I am no expert on 777 systems, but I studied for the B727 Flight engineer position, so I am fairly versed in aircraft systems in general.
I am an ATP rated pilot and Gold Seal flight instructor. I do my own maintenance, so I have some qualification.
Be careful about jumping to conclusions, you may walk right by that watch in the yard.
"To Ocean Infinity, it is inconceivable that anyone maliciously altered the Inmarsat data." If they accept that then the difficulty of the operation is squared because they'll have to consider that the wreck might be elsewhere. The Gulf of Thailand? (Florence de Changy)," The Maldives? (Ashton Forbes) or the whole part of planet earth that it was physically possible for MH370 to go. Despite the fact that the chance becomes steadily larger and larger as the search progresses without success that the search assumptions are wrong, could they ever get so unlikely that they will convince everybody who is ideologically committed to the Capt-Shah-done-it theory to change their minds? Something else will have to come out of left field, as it often does in other situations. I'll continue to follow the existing operation with interest anyway. Thanks for your coverage, Jeff.
Thanks, Ben! The question for me has always been, is there any possible mechanism by which the evidence can be explained in such a way that the hijackers didn't die? And it turns out that, thanks to a very unusual combination of properties, there is, and I've elaborated over the years how that could have played out. As you point out, various people have proposed other ideas about what could have happened to the plane. but none none of them have identified a plausible mechanism by which it could have happened.
The aircraft is likely to be where the last ping occurred and the straight line where/when the next ping did not but should have occurred. The autopilot setting would have determined whether the aircraft glided a significant distance or immediately entered a catastrophic spin leading to breakup.
Malaysia airlines could shed more light as whether the aircraft was setup up with envelope protection or was flown in just altitude hold. Once the fuel was exhausted, in altitude hold, the aircraft would slow and start descending. However, the autopilot sensing the descent would try to keep aircraft level, forcing the aircraft to eventually stall and spin. (Much like the Learjet Paine Stewart was in that departed Augusta and finally spun in up in the Midwest.)
In airspeed mode the aircraft would have begun a descent that would keep the desired speed set in the autopilot. This means it would have flown a considerable distance until reaching the ocean surface. An Air Transat A300 glided over a hundred miles and made a successful landing after fuel exhaustion.
Even some small aircraft have sophisticated autopilots that are able to land a plane unassisted. Watch "Garmin Autoland". I installed in my C310 the latest from Garmin, and it won't allow me to overspeed, overbank, or even get to slow. It even has a blue button that when pushed will level the aircraft.
That search area looks most promising. I would start at last ping and work south westbound.
Steve
It's an interesting idea, but the pings didn't send GPS locations (due to the cheap subscription level that Malaysia Airlines had signed up for) so we can't just draw a straight line forward from its last location. Also, we don't know if the plane was being flown on autopilot, but if it was, it would have disconnected when electrical power was interrupted when the engines ran out of fuel. So it turns out to be a legitimately tricky puzzle to solve.
You are forgetting that when electrical power is interrupter the RAT automatically extends to power the very basic core functions. That was the major clue in the Air India crash. The Ram Air Turbine extended when fuel was cut off by copilot.
Whoever set this aircraft up knew the systems well. More than likely a pilot. All the breakers were pulled that affected communication and ACARS reporting. They were unaware of the intermittent ping the aircraft still sent out. There may not even have been a breaker on the flight deck.
It is obvious that basic autopilot functions were left on. The straight-line course after the final turn proves that. No pilot can fly that straight of a line or hold altitude that perfectly. Also fuel pumps were left on. Cabin had to be depressurized, otherwise people would be aware. Whoever did this was probably using oxygen until autopilot was setup on heading to a place where plane would never be found. It was then removed, and he simply went quietly to sleep. I am no expert on 777 systems, but I studied for the B727 Flight engineer position, so I am fairly versed in aircraft systems in general.
I am an ATP rated pilot and Gold Seal flight instructor. I do my own maintenance, so I have some qualification.
Be careful about jumping to conclusions, you may walk right by that watch in the yard.
Steve
Appreciate your input, Steve, but these issues were looked into by Boeing itself, as described in considerable detail in Australia's final report.
"To Ocean Infinity, it is inconceivable that anyone maliciously altered the Inmarsat data." If they accept that then the difficulty of the operation is squared because they'll have to consider that the wreck might be elsewhere. The Gulf of Thailand? (Florence de Changy)," The Maldives? (Ashton Forbes) or the whole part of planet earth that it was physically possible for MH370 to go. Despite the fact that the chance becomes steadily larger and larger as the search progresses without success that the search assumptions are wrong, could they ever get so unlikely that they will convince everybody who is ideologically committed to the Capt-Shah-done-it theory to change their minds? Something else will have to come out of left field, as it often does in other situations. I'll continue to follow the existing operation with interest anyway. Thanks for your coverage, Jeff.
Thanks, Ben! The question for me has always been, is there any possible mechanism by which the evidence can be explained in such a way that the hijackers didn't die? And it turns out that, thanks to a very unusual combination of properties, there is, and I've elaborated over the years how that could have played out. As you point out, various people have proposed other ideas about what could have happened to the plane. but none none of them have identified a plausible mechanism by which it could have happened.