Is the Search for MH370 Already Dead? [S2Ep26]

Investigating the claim that Ocean Infinity has given up

Last month the Malaysian Government announced that it had reached an agreement with the marine survey company Ocean Infinity to restart the seabed search for the wreckage of MH370. A few days ago, the Australian commentator Geoffey Thomas caused a stir by claiming that the search was already a dead letter — that Ocean Infinity had “given up all hope” that a firm contract for the search would actually be forthcoming from Malaysia. Why did he say that? Is there any chance that he’s correct?

In a word, I see no compelling reason to worry.

The basis for Thomas’ anxiety, which is also shared by his frequent collaborator Richard Godfrey, is that none of Ocean Infinity’s ships seem currently well positioned to start the search immediately. The company has eight brand-new, state of the art survey vessels called “Armada 78s” that were custom built to its specifications, with the first being delivered in 2022. Only two of them are now in the Indian Ocean. Both recently were in Singapore, which is an Ocean Infinity hub and a good place to set out from for the southern Indian Ocean. Then one of them, Armada 78 08, sailed to South Africa—which is in a different direction from the search area. Then, about a week ago, the other one, Armada 78 06, set sail for Mauritius, which is also in the wrong direction. It’s slated to arrive there on February 3rd.

It was 78 06’s setting sail for Mauritius that provoked Thomas’ and Godfrey’s despair. They apparently feel that if Ocean Infinity is going to conduct a search, they’ll do it right away, and so if they don’t have ships headed in that direction at this exact moment, then the whole thing must have been called off. If that’s their logic, however, I don’t agree with it.

While it’s true that the best season for a seabed search is in the southern summer, which starts to wind down in March, it’s by no means impossible to conduct a search after that — indeed, when Ocean Infinity conducted their last seabed scan in 2018 they kept at it until June. And remember, the Malaysians gave them a time window of 18 months, so they could start next summer if they want to.

Needless to say, I had to ask Ocean Infinity about this. After the new search was announced last month by Malaysia’s transport minister, I reached out to them and they sent me this statement: “After a long wait, Transport Minister Anthony Loke's statement is great news. We look forward to sharing further updates in the new year once we've finalised the details and the team gets ready to go.”

Then, after Richard Godfrey started publicly speculating that the search might be stalled, I reached out to them again, they sent me another statement that read:

“Nothing has changed our end and the statement provided still stands.”

I read that as an unequivocal denial of the claim that the search has been called off.

The latest twist is that 7808 is heading eastward again, with a destination of Mauritius. It’s scheduled to arrive on February 5. Will the two ships join up there? If so will they then head to the search area together?

At this point we have no way of knowing, but I think that Armada 78 08’s latest movement makes it even less likely, in my view, that the search has been called off.