If the search area is 10,000 square kilometers which is a lot smaller than 2014-2018 searches, do you sense this is it? What I mean is, is this the last chance because of the smaller area? To me, it feels like there can't be much left to cover in the 7th arc that hasn't been done since 2014.
The way the probability heat map works is that the simpler the flight, the higher the probability the plane flew it. The most likely endpoints were those that were calculated from a straight flight at a normal speed and altitude. The more turns and changes of speed that are required to match the ping arcs, the lower the probabilty. Likewise, the further out you go from the 7th arc, the lower the probability. We're now left with only with areas that, at the start of the search, would have been considered very low probability. Apparently OI have convinced themselves that the 15,000 square kilometers they've laid out for themselves is still pretty good. I tried to unpack their logic in Episode 42: https://www.deepdivemh370.com/p/where-theyll-look-s2ep42
Happy New Year, Jeff.
Thanks, Ben. You too!
If the search area is 10,000 square kilometers which is a lot smaller than 2014-2018 searches, do you sense this is it? What I mean is, is this the last chance because of the smaller area? To me, it feels like there can't be much left to cover in the 7th arc that hasn't been done since 2014.
The way the probability heat map works is that the simpler the flight, the higher the probability the plane flew it. The most likely endpoints were those that were calculated from a straight flight at a normal speed and altitude. The more turns and changes of speed that are required to match the ping arcs, the lower the probabilty. Likewise, the further out you go from the 7th arc, the lower the probability. We're now left with only with areas that, at the start of the search, would have been considered very low probability. Apparently OI have convinced themselves that the 15,000 square kilometers they've laid out for themselves is still pretty good. I tried to unpack their logic in Episode 42: https://www.deepdivemh370.com/p/where-theyll-look-s2ep42